This comprehensive guide explains the mathematical reality behind poker machines, how random number generators work, and what your actual odds of winning are when playing pokies in Australian venues.
When you sit down at a poker machine in any Australian venue, you are engaging with a sophisticated computer system designed with one primary purpose: to generate revenue for the venue. Understanding your actual chances of winning on pokies requires looking beyond the flashing lights and exciting sounds to examine the mathematical reality that governs every spin.
The truth is straightforward but often misunderstood. Gaming machines are not designed for players to make money. They are programmed to return a specific percentage of money wagered over time, and that percentage is always less than 100%. This means that for every dollar collectively wagered by all players, the machine is programmed to keep a portion as profit for the venue.
Modern poker machines, also called pokies or EGMs, are controlled entirely by computer programs. At the heart of every machine is a random number generator that produces tens of thousands of possible outcomes every second, even when no one is playing.
When you press the spin button, the RNG stops at a specific moment and selects one outcome from millions of possible combinations. This outcome is determined the instant you press the button, before the reels even begin to spin. The spinning reels you see are purely visual entertainment, the result has already been decided by the computer.
Every approved poker machine contains several essential components that work together to create the gaming experience:
All of these components must be assessed and approved by gaming regulators before any machine can be installed in a licensed venue. This ensures compliance with technical standards but does not change the fundamental odds programmed into the software.
The Return to Player percentage is the most important number for understanding your chances of winning on pokies. RTP represents the percentage of all wagered money that a machine is programmed to pay back to players over its lifetime.
In Australian clubs and hotels, RTP settings typically range from 85% to 92%. In casinos, the minimum is 85% but can be higher. If a machine has an RTP of 90%, this means that for every 100 dollars wagered across all players over time, the machine will return 90 dollars in winnings and retain 10 dollars as profit for the venue.
It is critical to understand that RTP is calculated over millions of spins across all players. It does not mean you will get back 90% of what you personally wager in a single session. Short-term results can vary dramatically from the programmed RTP.
You might win more than you wager in one session, or you might lose everything quickly. The RTP only becomes accurate over an extremely large sample size. For any individual player in any single session, the outcome is unpredictable, but the mathematical expectation is always negative.
The house edge is simply the inverse of RTP. A 90% RTP means a 10% house edge. This edge ensures that venues will always profit over time, regardless of individual player wins or losses.
The random number generator is the core technology that determines your chances of winning on every spin. Understanding how it works dispels many common misconceptions about poker machines.
An RNG is a complex mathematical algorithm that generates number sequences with no discernible pattern. These generators produce outcomes continuously, cycling through thousands of possibilities every second. The numbers generated correspond to specific reel positions or game outcomes.
One of the most important facts about RNGs is that each spin is completely independent of all previous spins. The machine has no memory of whether it just paid out a jackpot or has not paid anything for hours. Each outcome is drawn fresh from all possible combinations with the same probability.
This independence means that previous results provide absolutely no information about future results. A machine that just paid a large jackpot has exactly the same probability of paying another jackpot on the very next spin as it did before the first jackpot. There is no cycle, no pattern, and no way to predict what will happen next.
All gaming machines in Australian venues must comply with strict regulatory standards. The Office of Liquor and Gaming Regulation assesses every piece of gaming equipment to ensure it meets legislation requirements, including certified random number generators and approved RTP ranges.
Venues are permitted to change game variations only once per month, and all games with the same name and denomination must have identical variations. RTP settings for clubs and hotels range from 85% to 92%, while casinos must offer 85% or higher. These regulations ensure fairness but guarantee long-term venue profitability.
Misunderstandings about how poker machines work lead to many persistent myths that can encourage harmful gambling behavior. Here are the facts behind the most common misconceptions.
Many players believe that some machines are hot and paying out frequently while others are cold and due to pay. This is completely false. Because each spin is independent and random, there is no such thing as a hot or cold machine. Past performance provides no indication of future results.
A machine that has paid out several times in a row is not more or less likely to pay out on the next spin. The odds remain exactly the same for every single play.
Another common belief is that a machine that has not paid out for a long time is due to hit. This is false. Random number generators do not keep track of how long it has been since a payout. Each spin has the same probability of winning regardless of what happened before.
A machine could theoretically go months without a major payout, or it could pay out twice in consecutive spins. Neither scenario affects the probability of the next outcome.
Some players believe that venue staff know when machines will pay out or can control payouts remotely. This is not true. The random number generator operates independently, and outcomes are determined by certified software that venues cannot manipulate during play.
While venues can change the RTP variation of a machine, they are strictly limited to doing this once per month, and all machines with the same game name and denomination must have identical settings. Venues genuinely do not know when any specific machine will pay out because the process is random.
No amount of skill, timing, button-pressing technique, or bet variation will change your odds of winning on pokies. The outcome is determined by the RNG the instant you press the button. How fast you press, which button you use, or how much you bet on that particular spin does not alter the random selection process.
Features like free spins, bonus rounds, and multiple paylines are designed to enhance entertainment and create the perception of near-misses or frequent wins. However, they do not change the fundamental RTP or house edge programmed into the machine.
When we talk about chances of winning on pokies, we need to distinguish between different types of wins. Small wins that return less than your original bet happen relatively frequently. These are designed to keep you playing and create the feeling of winning even when you are losing money overall.
Significant wins that exceed your total amount wagered are much rarer. Major jackpots are extremely rare, with odds that can be worse than one in several million spins depending on the game.
If you play a machine with a 90% RTP, your expected loss is 10% of every dollar you wager. If you bet 100 dollars per hour, your expected loss is 10 dollars per hour. This is a mathematical certainty over time, though short-term variance means your actual results in any session will differ.
The more you play, the more likely your actual results will approach the programmed RTP. This is why extended play almost always results in net losses. The house edge is small enough to allow for entertainment value and occasional wins, but large enough to guarantee venue profitability.
Different games have different volatility levels. High volatility games pay out less frequently but offer larger potential wins. Low volatility games pay out more frequently but with smaller amounts. Regardless of volatility, the RTP remains the same, meaning your expected loss over time is identical.
Hit frequency refers to how often any win occurs, including wins smaller than your bet. A game might have a 30% hit frequency, meaning you win something on 30% of spins. However, many of these wins will be less than your wager, resulting in a net loss despite the win.
The fundamental reason venues always profit from poker machines is the mathematical certainty of the house edge combined with the volume of play. Even with an RTP of 92%, the 8% house edge multiplied by thousands of spins across dozens of machines generates substantial guaranteed revenue.
Individual players may win in the short term, and some will walk away with profits. However, across all players and all sessions, the total amount wagered will always exceed the total amount paid out by the exact percentage of the house edge.
This is not a matter of luck or chance. It is mathematical certainty built into the software. The random number generator ensures fairness in the sense that outcomes are unpredictable and not manipulated, but fairness does not mean equal chances of winning and losing. The odds are permanently tilted in favor of the house.
Understanding your real chances of winning on pokies is the first step toward safer gambling. If you choose to play, treat it as entertainment with a cost, not as a way to make money.
Set a strict budget before you start and never exceed it. Decide in advance how much money you can afford to lose and stop playing when you reach that limit. Never chase losses by continuing to play in hopes of winning back what you have lost.
Take regular breaks to maintain perspective. The design of gaming machines encourages continuous play, but stepping away helps you make rational decisions about whether to continue.
Avoid believing that you can develop a system or strategy to beat the machines. No betting pattern, timing method, or machine selection technique will overcome the house edge. The mathematics are absolute.
Your chances of winning on pokies are determined entirely by the random number generator and the programmed Return to Player percentage. Every spin is independent, random, and mathematically designed to favor the venue over time.
While short-term wins are possible and some players will experience positive sessions, the long-term expectation for all players is negative. The house edge ensures that continued play will result in losses that approach the programmed percentage.
Understanding these facts does not eliminate the entertainment value of pokies for those who choose to play recreationally with money they can afford to lose. However, it does provide the realistic perspective necessary to avoid harmful gambling behavior based on false beliefs about hot machines, due payouts, or winning systems.
The most important takeaway is this: poker machines are designed for venue profit, not player profit. Your chances of winning any individual spin are determined by certified random software, and your chances of profiting over extended play approach zero as the number of spins increases.
Jackpot odds vary by game but are typically between one in several hundred thousand to one in several million spins. The exact odds depend on the specific game design and jackpot type. Progressive jackpots generally have lower odds than fixed jackpots.
No. Each spin is completely independent and random. A machine that has not paid out recently has exactly the same probability of paying out as one that just hit a jackpot. The random number generator has no memory of previous results.
Generally yes. Higher denomination machines often have slightly higher RTP percentages than lower denomination machines. However, this means you are also risking more money per spin, so your potential losses can accumulate faster despite the marginally better return percentage.
Near-misses are part of the game design to create excitement and encourage continued play. They have no predictive value. The outcome was already determined by the RNG, and the near-miss display is simply how that random outcome is presented visually.
No. The time of day, day of week, or how busy the venue is has absolutely no effect on your chances of winning. The random number generator operates continuously with the same probabilities regardless of external factors.
On average, you will lose between 8% and 15% of every dollar you wager, depending on the RTP setting of the specific machine. If you play a machine with 90% RTP and wager 500 dollars total, your expected loss is 50 dollars, though actual results in any session will vary.
Organizations providing support and information for safer gambling practices in Australia.
A detailed examination of how RTP works, what different percentages mean for your bankroll, and why this number is the most important factor in understanding your expected losses over time.
An in-depth look at the technology behind poker machine outcomes, including how RNG algorithms function, why they ensure unpredictability, and what certification processes they must pass.
New research demonstrates that near-miss displays on poker machines significantly extend playing sessions despite having no effect on actual winning probability.
Regulatory changes now require some jurisdictions to display RTP information more prominently to help players make informed decisions.
Latest data indicates poker machines continue to be associated with the highest rates of gambling-related harm among all gaming products in Australia.